How many times a day, or during the week for that matter does a gambler come upon a horse entered in a race that is a maiden that has a career mark of 0 for 7? How about a runner that is 0 for 14, or 0 for 21? Are these horses good wagers at all? Do they have any value at all? My answer to you is a resounding no.
After all, how many times should it take for a horse to win a race? It’s always been my belief that if a horse can’t win in 5 or 6 starts it’s best to give up on them and simply move on. Often, these 0’fer horses, as I like to call them, offer no value and simply drain a handicappers bankroll roll. The thought that these horses are “due” never really pan out and more often than not drain a handicappers bankroll. The thought that are a good place or show bet is more practical but do you really want your bankroll relying on a horse that has already proven he has no heart being in a photo finish with you holding a ticket on him? No thanks.
Now let’s make it interesting. How about a horse that owns a career mark of 6 wins from 30 career starts. That’s a solid 20% win ratio. When a handicapper comes upon a horse like that it’s often thought that this horse is a trier and likes to win races. But, upon further review you notice he is 0 for 11 this year. Now you have to question is the same horse that won 6 times or has he developed some physical or mental issues that are preventing him from winning. Again, this horse would not be a play for me.
Now keep in mind that sometimes these horses will win and bounce back with a win and pay a nice price. Some will try and lure you on paper and they’ll be tempting with a drop in class or a stretch out in distance or cut back. maybe they’ll add the blinkers or be taking them off. But for me they deserve only one thing and that is to draw a line through them when they show up on the entry sheet.
If you have a horse racing related question, you can contact Eddie the Hat at firstname.lastname@example.org
The Hook. Gamblers can either love it or hate it but if it’s used properly to ones advantage it can be the difference in winning or losing.
One thing we have preached for years is when you come upon a game you feel is going to be decided by a field goal and find that a team you like is getting +3 1/2 jump on it. Act very quickly so that you can take advantage and get that extra + 1/2 point, or the hook as it’s called in gambling terms.
Such was the case this past weekend in three games that we liked. The three were all underdogs and all three were offering the hook when we took advantage. Example, was the Michigan vs. Ohio State game. This was a game that I figured would come down to a field goal and I loved Michigan. I ended up with a big play on Michigan +3 1/2 and was able to scratch out the win thanks to the hook. It pays to do your shopping early and look for games that offer the hook. Of course the same would apply if you think that a game will come down to a touch down and you like the chalk. If the line is -6 1/2, jump on it quickly so if you are correct you’ll cash on your bet.
Another item that I can’t stress enough on is having a game plan going into wagering. This applies to both horses and sports and requires some discipline going in. Know what you are going to do … what games/horses you like before you do it. Wager on them and then walk away. A smart gambler knows when it’s simply not his day, and just licks his/her wounds and wait for another day. It’s the fool that will “chase” his money and try to make up for losing wagers to win it back. That can and often does lead to monumental losses and the gambler losing the bankroll prematurely. Gambling on sports/horses is a marathon, not a sprint. You can’t measure your success by one day, but over the season. That’s why so many people fail and have to walk away broke.
Hope this helps. If you require some advice, please feel free to e-mail us so that we can help you with your wagering. http://www.sportswagers-selections.com is the best way to reach us.
The Ball State vs. Toledo game was impacted on Wednesday night as heavy fog rolled in just before half-time making visibility tough on the field. This game could get real interesting to say the least should the conditions get worse. … One of my resolutions for 2017 is to spend much more time on my blog, getting thoughts together to post. I’m really bad sometimes on thinking that others care what I truly think. A perfect example is during games when other professional handicappers are posting thoughts and comments on games in progress I’ll be like “does it really matter what I’m thinking or observing now? They are watching the same game.” Perhaps I need to realize that others do care what I think. I’ll try and be more active with postings and increase my posts also on Twitter and Facebook. … The Los Angeles Clippers lost only the second game of the season on Wednesday night. Could it be? Could it be possible that the now that the Chicago Cubs have won the world series that the Clippers could win the NBA Championship? LOL … The NFL will have this weeks Monday night game in Mexico City.
Anybody else noticed the ERA’s of some pitchers are rising like a loaf of bread in the oven? We are. Look at the WHIP’s too, both are rising for some pitchers and it would seem that this is a situation that happens each and every MLB season this time of year. It’s called the dead arm and some pitchers run into in year after year. While having a good first half of the season, take a careful look at pitching stats after the All-Star break and make sure the team you are about to wager on doesn’t have a starting pitcher showing this. A good rule of thumb is to check out their last five starts to see what direction they are heading in.
What got into Chicago White Sox starter Chris Sale this weekend? Protesting the wearing of the teams 1976-style jersey’s, it was reported that Sale refused to wear his and then proceeded to cut up $12,700 worth of teammates uniforms forcing the team to not be able to use the retro uniforms. Sale was suspended five games and was fined a total of $250,000. Flake.
Ken Griffey, Jr and Mike Piazza both entered MLB Hall over the weekend. Congrats to both players.
Why aren’t I a fan of the Olympics? You really need to ask? It’s become as corrupt as boxing and wrestling as far as I’m concerned and have way better things to do than waste my time on it. Need more proof? Start with the Russians.
Several times in a month, maybe even a week, I get asked how do I create cash flow in sports gambling? While the answer is quite simple, you bet on winners, the results a gambler has will vary.
First off I need to say that it is indeed “gambling” and not sports investing. Sure either term can be used but gambling is indeed the best way to describe the placing money on games. The results of winning and losing can be agonizing and not for the faint at heart. The results can be gleeful or downright depressing and honestly the gambler has no way of figuring into the end result after the game is decided.
Take the game of baseball for example. Let’s say you love a pitching match-up with pitcher A going against pitcher B. You wager on pitcher A and he is throwing a flawless game and leads into the 6th inning 3-1. But then a funny thing happens. His pitch count starts to rise and at 110 pitches he is forced to leave the game. With a 3-1 lead into the 7th inning, the bull pen becomes involved and your 3-0 lead turns into a 5-3 loss.
In order for a gambler to be successful in the long term, he/she needs to be able to use restraint. The gambler needs to understand it’s the long term goal, not the short one, that will decide becoming a winner or a loser. Not every game is going to produce a winner, and not every week is going to produce positive results either. Much like the stock market, the results will seem like a heart graph with many highs and lows as you move along. For the gambler to jump in and start wagering if you expect positive results right away you may be in for a big disappointment. Should you get those results, great. But don’t expect them. If everybody were to win every wager they placed we would all be on the beach in Cabo. But since most professional handicappers work 10-12 hour days in a office you know that’s not the case.
So, my best advice to people wanting in is really quite simple. Be patient and keep track of your results. Wager the same amount of each game and don’t double up when you win or lose a game. Keep in mind it’s a route race and not a sprint race and the end result is the key. Did you win or lose money. Not what you did do in one day or at the end of one week.
Remember, Rome wasn’t built in a day.
Derek Holland of the Texas Rangers comes to mind. Making his seasonal start for the 2016 season this past Thursdays, Holland was a few pitches away from making a solid start, a winning start but a few mistakes cost him the win. He needs to step up in his next start and we have a feeling he just may do that.
Chris Archer of the Rays had a dismal start on Friday, a very unsettling start for this fiery, competitive starting pitcher. Simply draw a line through this start and lets move on to his next one.
Tidbits, food for thought …
Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels began the 2016 season going 0 for 8 and when he finally broke through with a single jokingly asked for the baseball. … How about the start the San Diego Padres got off to? Three games, no runs scored in any. Next two games a different outcome, with the Padres going on a scoring rampage.
Anyone as tired of the circus events leading up to Los Angeles Lakers retiring Kobe Bryant as I am? This entire season has been a slap in the face to the Lakers organization and instead of concentrating on developing the rookies it’s all been about Kobe. Wasted season to be sure.
Nice the Dodgers have been taking care of their fans and stepping up to make it easier to watch home games on T.V. Once again proving they could careless about the fans and the ability to watch games should they not be able to make it to the stadium. Nice going and hats off to the management and ownership team.
Getting closer to the Kentucky Derby and I have to say from where I sit it’s a wide open group of three year olds that will be standing in the gate the first Saturday in May.
Okay. I settle in to the cushy couch with a beverage by my side to watch the sporting event I have been waiting all day for. Then, the doorbell rings. I get up expecting to have to rip off the head of some unsuspecting door-to-door sales person but it’s the kid next door poltely asking me to retrieve the soccer ball they kicked in the backyard. Maybe that’s why I dislike soccer? Why couldn’t it be a football or a baseball?
A few minutes into the game the cell phone starts to blow up with Twitter posts and the morons have started to come out. Why do others feel the need to make posts on the game in progress? I’m watching the game. Yeah, I saw the 20 foot jump shot mailed from the corner. I don’t need someone telling me it was a nice shot. I SAW IT!
If you haven’t seen Nyquist’s race from last weekend you are missing out. I’m not going to go out on a limb just yet and say he’s the next Derby winner but you have to admit he’s deserving to be the early favorite. I usually like to wait a bit and see what develops. Want to see the post position draw for the real thing and who actually makes it in. Until horses are standing in the gate I try to temper my excitement. Been disappointed by late scratches and injuries too many times.
Congrats to everyone who tabbed Villanova the 2016 NCAA Champions. Job well done and wasn’t that an exciting game vs. Monday night? That’s what its all about.